Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,691$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(689 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,258.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,258.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.8}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(105.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $432$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,172.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,116.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,855$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,398.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,398.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $249$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(84.5 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{237.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(237.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $468$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,198$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,102.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,102.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $328$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(86.4 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(323.1\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $270$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,875$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(3.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,316.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,316.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $604$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(185 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{586.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(586.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $563$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,838$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(760 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,807.4}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,807.4\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.91 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,295$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(58,873.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,478.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,478.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,622$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,640$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{302,325.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(302,325.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,634$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,497.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,497.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $267,642$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,310$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(6.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,231.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,231.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,738$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,706.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,681$ on 2020-06-28
